• The organic packaged food and beverage market in the US is highly fragmented, with the leading player, Danone Groupe, recording a value share of 3.8% in 2021, followed by Flower Foods Inc. with a share of 3.4%.
• The US is the largest market for organic products in the world, ranking 1st globally in terms of market size. The forecast growth rank is low, recorded at 31st globally. However, the large market size is a highly influential factor in the relatively low growth rate.

• Organic products in the US recorded a market size of US$23.7 bn in 2021, representing about 40% of the global market with a per capita expenditure of US$71.40.
• With an increasing demand from health-conscious consumers and the rise of a wide variety of premium offerings, organic products in the US are expected to remain strong, recording a value CAGR of 3.9% for the forecast period 2021-2026.

• Organic packaged food and beverages in the US recorded a slight decline of 0.3% in 2021, registering a market size of US$23.7 bn. 
• While sales of organic beverages fell by 1.4% in 2021, organic soft drinks bucked the trend and increased by 2.3% amid strength in juices.
• Organic packaged food remained broadly flat at US$21.3 bn in 2021. However, organic bread and organic ready meals were pillars of strength as sales rose by 8.5% and 4.9%, respectively.

• Interest in labels and certifications such as ‘plant-based’ or ‘clean ingredients’ continued to gain traction in 2021. Consumers have become less focused on cutting out specific nutrients, such as fat, and have instead begun to focus on foods that are overall healthy and minimally processed. However, consumers are increasingly becoming interested in sugar and salt reduction and looking to supplement their diet with immune-boosting nutrients.
• Consumer interest in some foods certified as organic also increased in 2021, with organic bread and organic ready meals seeing particularly strong performances. While consumers typically sought out organic foods for their health properties, many are now also seeking them out for environmental reasons. As awareness is raised about the environmental benefits of organic farming, consumers will continue to seek out these options. However, some scepticism remains around organic labelling. Euromonitor International surveys indicate that just under half of Americans do not view ‘organic’ as a trustworthy claim on labels. This shows that companies need to gain consumer trust through transparency and education about their practices and the benefits of organic agriculture and production.
• The pandemic-assisted boost to sales will be difficult to hold onto for fortified functional beverages. Customer inclination towards immune-positioned beverages will likely decrease with stronger levels of protection amongst the population, both naturally occurring and from vaccines. Fortified functional beverages will therefore need to retool for a more general wellness and disease prevention positioning, rather than appealing to COVID-19-related concerns specifically.

• Organic packaged food in the United States was led by Danone, consistently ranked top since 2017 and accounting for 4.2% of value sales in 2021. Flowers Food Inc. witnessed strong growth in 2021, increasing its market share to 3.8% from 3.1% in 2020 and becoming the second largest brand owner in the process.
• Despite a drop in sales during 2021, Amy’s Kitchen owned by Amy’s Kitchen Inc maintained its position as number one brand in organic packaged food with 3.7% market share. Horizon Organic (owned by Danone, Groupe) and Dave’s Killer Bread (owned by Flowers Food Inc.) followed as second and third positioned brands, respectively. Dave’s Killer Bread continues to show impressive growth – nearly 20% sales growth made it the second fastest growing brand in 2021, after another Flower Foods Inc brand Alpine Valley enjoyed a 24% upturn.
• The organic beverages category was led by Nestlé SA in 2021, with 4.9% of market share. Newman’s Own Inc is follows closely with a category share of 4.7%. Organic beverages saw a slight decline of 1.4% in 2021 as all of the top five companies except for Death Wish Coffee Co. registered negative sales growth. Starbucks, Newman's Own and Death Wish Coffee are top brands in the organic beverages category in 2021.

• The beverage mix in the US is becoming less sugary as the anti-sugar trend strengthens. However, reduced sugar beverages are only projected to eke out growth at a rate lower than that of the total US population, indicating a falling share of throat for this category among younger consumers. Scepticism of artificial sweeteners is growing, as clean labels become the real focus of health-conscious beverage drinkers.
• US consumers are not actively giving up on caffeine. Highly caffeinated categories such as RTD coffee and energy drinks continue to do well, and even traditionally non-caffeinated categories such as bottled water are seeing increasing numbers of SKUs pop up with a caffeinated energy positioning. At the same time however, consumers are dealing with the negative effects of caffeine, and in many cases would like to cut back, but not entirely, due to modern lifestyle. This might give rise to caffeinated products, with additives such as L-theanine included to offer a less anxiety-inducing energy burst, although it could also take the form of lower-caffeine products that use alternative sources of energy, such as ginseng.
• The idea of splitting out “good fats” from “bad fats” like trans fats is now the dominant approach, rather than avoiding fat in all its forms. Reduced fat beverages are clustered in flavoured powder drinks, and the category is consumed primarily by children in the US. An historically low fertility rate, that is not expected to rise notably moving forward, poses a considerable demographic risk to flavoured powder drinks and consequently reduced fat beverages.

• Consumer interest in health and wellness is set to remain strong throughout the forecast period, with solid retail current value growth expected for both health and wellness packaged food and beverages. The link between diet and overall health became clearer throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, and many consumers have opted for lifestyle changes that will persist throughout the forecast period. However, price will continue to remain a challenge for health and wellness products. Although many consumers are willing to pay a premium for these products, high prices could hinder growth in the long term.
• Free from packaged food is expected to see the highest growth in the forecast period, as consumers continue to be interested in plant-based meat and dairy alternatives. Consumers are interested in seeking out foods that are marketed as being overall healthy. Also, Consumers are increasingly seeking out foods which are free from allergens, such as lactose and gluten, a trend that will benefit this category during the forecast period. 
• Organic beverages and packaged food are also set to experience strong growth, as consumers seek out these options for health and environmental reasons. Both fortified/functional beverages and packaged food will remain popular as consumers continue to look for products with added health benefits. Interest in trends such as immunity and gut health will also continue to increase, positively impacting these categories.

Economy: 

• The economy of the US is set to continue picking up steam in 2022, with real GDP growth expected to register 3.7% following a rebound of 5.7% in 2021. 
• Private final consumption witnessed an increase of 12.8% in 2021, with a growth of 3.2% expected in 2022. 
• The consumer price index stood at 4.7% for 2021 and is expected to average 4.5% in 2022.

Population demographics: 

• The population of the United States increased slightly by 0.2% in 2021 to reach 332.4 million. It is expected to rise to 337.3 million by 2025.
• Population over 65 is set to increase from 17.3 million in 2021 to 19.1 million in 2025, whereas population between 0-14 is set to decline from 18.1 million in 2021 to 17.1 million in 2025.
• The median age in 2021 was recorded at 38.8 years and is expected to rise to 40.7 years by 2030. 

Income & expenditure: 

• The savings ratio in the US declined slightly to 14.5% of disposable income in 2021 and is expected to remain at this level until 2025.
• Consumer expenditure per capita in 2021 was recorded at US$46,060, 12.6% up on the previous year. For the period 2021-2030, consumer expenditure is projected to show a CAGR of 1.6%.
• Per capita disposable income was US$53,886 in 2021 and is forecast to increase to US$58,484 by 2030.

[1] Health and Wellness Definition: Health and wellness is the aggregation of organic packaged food and beverages, fortified/functional packaged food and beverages, naturally healthy packaged food and beverages, better for you packaged food and beverages and food intolerance products. The above definition and more can be referenced from the definitions table at the end of the report.

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NOP Handbook: Guidance & Instructions for Accredited Certifying Agents & Certified Operations
Guide to Organic Labeling
Resources for Farms, Ranches, & Businesses
Organic Integrity Learning Center