• Danone Groupe leads the organic segment in the US with a value share of 8.3% in 2023, followed by Flowers Foods Inc with a value share of 6.6% and Mondelez International Inc with a share of 5.5%. 
• The US remains the largest organic market globally by a significant margin, with a value of US$15.8 billion in 2023. Nonetheless, it lags behind several European countries in terms of per capita consumption.

• Organic products in the US represent 25.4% of global demand and 90.2% of the market in the North American region, recording a per capita expenditure of US$47.2 in 2023. 
• The US market for organic products is projected to increase with a value CAGR of 1.8% for the forecast period 2023-2028 in 2023 constant prices with fixed USD exchange rates, reaching a value of US$17.3 billion by 2028.

• The Organic Packaged Food and Beverages category in the US registered a value growth of 3.5% in 2023 in current prices to record a market size of US$15.8 billion. 
• During the historic period of 2019-2023, the Organic Packaged Food category registered a CAGR of 6.1% in current prices. For the forecast period from 2023 to 2028, a CAGR of 2.0% in constant prices is expected.
• Organic Beverages grew historically at a 9.7% current CAGR, and its growth is expected to decelerate to 0.5% constant CAGR over the forecast period.
• Growth in Organic Packaged Food was primarily driven by Organic Staple Food, which recorded an exceptional 15.1% current CAGR during the historic period. However, it is now expected to decelerate significantly to grow only by a constant CAGR of 1.6% over the forecast period.
• Similarly, within Organic Beverages, Organic Soft Drinks drove historic growth with a 13.1% current CAGR, but now faces an expected setback with a value decline of 0.7% constant CAGR throughout the forecast period.

• Consumers are gaining a stronger sense of what health and wellness means as nutrition education strengthens and then making purchases that align with their sense of wellbeing. Manufacturers are responding with new products that leverage a combination of health and wellness positionings while promoting specific healthy nutrients. US consumers are paying closer attention to nutritional information and packaging labels in order to purchase products that they believe will improve their diet. They leverage low sugar, as well as natural and organic claims, and features tied to indulgence, to signal to consumers that their products are nutritious, and thus more permissible compared with standard products.
• Consumer continue seeking simplification and assurance that the products they purchase are not ultra-processed foods, which can be achieved in their minds through organic certification. They might even buy fewer items but are willing to spend more per item if it is deemed to be healthier, of a higher quality, or more sustainable, leading to a boost in value growth for organic brands which target younger, eco-aware shoppers.

• Groupe Danone is leading the Organic Packaged Food category with a market share of 9.6% in 2023, losing 0.7 p.p. since 2019. The company is expected to experience a significant drop in 2024 following the announced sale of its main brands in the segment, Horizon Organic and Wallaby dairy products, to Platinum Equity.
• One standout success is Dave’s Killer Bread, now the top organic bread brand in the United States. Its rapid growth has helped position its parent company, Flowers Foods Inc, as the second-largest Organic Packaged Food company in the country. Flowers Foods Inc increased its market share from 2.1% in 2019 to 7.6% in 2023, supported by an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.7% in sales.
• GT's Living Foods LLC continued to lead Organic Beverages in 2023 with a market share of 10.8%, although losing 4.0 p.p. from 2019, as new players enter the competitive market, GT's Living Foods LLC has been a strong player in the kombucha market, with their drinks some of the most popular in stores.

• Sales of Organic Hot Drinks in the US are projected to grow at a 3.6% constant value CAGR, reaching US$693.7 million by 2028. While high caffeine products remain popular, there is rising demand for caffeine-free alternatives as consumers look to manage stress and sleeplessness. In this context, natural and organic claims are frequently paired with no caffeine positioning, particularly in fresh coffee. Organic Fresh Coffee is set to lead the category, with sales expected to reach US$387.7 million by 2028, supported by a 5.1% CAGR.
• Another fast-growing segment is Organic Dairy Products and Alternatives, projected to reach US$4.2 billion in 2028 with a 2.3% constant CAGR. The main driver is Organic Plant-based Milk, set to hit US$564.5 million in 2028 with a strong 19.2% CAGR. While many consumers choose vegan or plant-based options for dietary reasons, others are motivated by concerns over animal welfare and the environmental impact of meat-based diets. As a result, vegan and plant-based, which are both dietary and “free from” wellness attributes, are expected to see continued growth in the dairy alternatives category.

• Health and wellness awareness continues to gain momentum among US consumers, with a growing emphasis on preventive measures such as healthier eating habits. According to Euromonitor International's Voice of the Consumer: Lifestyles Survey 2024, 49% of US consumers actively seek food and beverage products containing healthy ingredients. This marks a notable increase from 43% in the previous year, highlighting a shift toward more health-conscious purchasing behavior.
• As consumers become more mindful of how their diets impact their health, many are paying closer attention to ingredients and nutritional content. This has driven growth in foods that cater to specific dietary preferences. While some consumers seek gluten free products due to intolerances or sensitivities, a wider audience is now choosing them for perceived health benefits, particularly the belief that gluten free options are lower in calories and more supportive of weight management goals. As a result, gluten free foods are gaining traction beyond medical necessity, becoming part of mainstream health-conscious eating habits.

Economy:

• The US economy is expected to slow in 2025, with real GDP growth projected at 1.8%, down from 2.8% in 2024. This deceleration is largely attributed to ongoing tariff uncertainty, high interest rates, and persistent inflation concerns. However, recent de-escalation of trade tensions with China and signs of a stabilizing labor market have slightly improved the economic outlook.
• Real GDP growth is anticipated to remain moderate, reaching 1.7% in 2026 and averaging 1.9% annually through 2028.
• Inflation closed 2024 at 3.0% and is expected to remain at a similar level in 2025, slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target.

Population demographics: 

• U.S.'s population reached 336.2 million in 2024 and is projected to grow by 0.4% to 337.6 million in 2025. Currently 18.2% of the population is 65 years or older, an increase of 1.7 p.p. from 2020. 
• The median age in the US was recorded at 39.3 years in 2024, an increase of 0.8 years from 2020.

Income & expenditure: 

• The US savings ratio reached 10.0% of disposable income in 2024, remaining stable in recent years, except for 2020, which saw a significant spike.
• Consumer expenditure per capita grew by 4.7% in 2024 in current USD terms. In constant USD, it is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.8% through 2028. Health goods and medical services is forecast to be the largest consumer spending category in 2028, while education will record the fastest growth over 2023-2028.
• Disposable income per capita was US$63,423.1 in 2024. It is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.0% through 2028, outpacing the growth from both of its neighbors Canada and Mexico.

¹ Health and Wellness Definition: Health and wellness is the aggregation of organic packaged food and beverages, fortified/functional packaged food and beverages, naturally healthy packaged food and beverages, better for you packaged food and beverages and food intolerance products.

The above definition and more can be referenced from the definitions table at the end of the report.

² Economic and Demographic Data has been updated to reflect final 2024 estimates, therefore using 2024 as the base year for exchange rates and prices. 

³ Historic current prices and forecast constant 2024 prices.

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